Saturday, February 20, 2010

Overvalued and Undervalued Pitchers

Reactions: 
David Price, Rays
2010 Goose Joak Original
by Goose Joak

Gearing up for fantasy baseball season is incredibly fun.  One thing I always like to do is get a sense of over and under valued pitchers. 


So, I used:

Based on some weighted z-scores, projections and MDC, here's what I came up with.

Most overvalued pitchers based on ADP and projected performance:

1t. Rick Porcello (57)
1t. Scott Feldman (57)

The parentheses indicate # of starting pitchers who are projected to have a better season and a lower ADP.  Quality of season is defined as "projected performance per IP" * "innings."

Anyway, the most undervalued pitcher using the same methodology:

1. Gio Gonzalez (-75)


Here are a few other names that jumped out at me.  I'll try to go beyond the obvious low K guys (e.g. Joe Saunders, Aaron Cook, Jair Jurrjens)

Overvalued:

7. Chris Carpenter (36)
8. David Price (35)
17. Brandon Webb (27)

Pass on Carpenter and take Hanson, Gallardo, Kershaw, Hamels, Nolasco or Wandy.  Plenty of upside in that group without the same season-ending injury risk.  Plus, Carpenter is not an elite strikeout pitcher, even when he's healthy and in top form.  For most of us with IP caps, the price is too rich for my blood.

Undervalued:

4. Phil Hughes (-56)

Projected to be a top 30 pitcher, and that's with < 120 IP.  He projects similarly to Jon Lester on a per IP basis, sans ground ball rates.

8.5 K/9 -- 3.2 BB/9
8.3 K/9 -- 3.0 BB/9

All in all a fun exercise.  Can't wait!

Side note -- I should have the GJ 2010 set figured out this weekend.  More to come!  

3 comments:

  1. Also, FWIW, I don't (or rather, didn't) debate the merits of any player projection. For me, I've found that it's best to hold my instinct in check and leave the stats alone. I'll "fudge factor" certain guys up and down on my draft board, based on educated guesses, but playing with the numbers themselves helps me to do stupid things like draft Lastings Milledge. If I wishcast stats, I end up wishcasting too high.

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  2. The "fudge factor" is what makes fantasy fun Dave. I'm a little surprised that Price is overvalued because when I researched him it seemed like he was not getting enough respect for the potential he holds. I can see why Hughes would be a forgotten man since he's a set up guy. That was Carlos Marmol in 2007 and 2008 too.

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  3. Regarding Price, that is interesting. Could be he's getting more play in MDC than in publications. Also, it could be that the projection is rather down on him (which I believe it was). That's the one thing with projections and "projectable" players -- the mean (or median) projection can't sell you on his upside, even if you know it's there. But it's when I assume I'll get it that I can get into trouble!

    Good read on Marmol too.

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