David Price, Rays
2010 Goose Joak Original
by Goose Joak
Gearing up for fantasy baseball season is incredibly fun. One thing I always like to do is get a sense of over and under valued pitchers.
So, I used:
Based on some weighted z-scores, projections and MDC, here's what I came up with.
Most overvalued pitchers based on ADP and projected performance:
1t. Rick Porcello (57)
1t. Scott Feldman (57)
The parentheses indicate # of starting pitchers who are projected to have a better season and a lower ADP. Quality of season is defined as "projected performance per IP" * "innings."
Anyway, the most undervalued pitcher using the same methodology:
1. Gio Gonzalez (-75)
Here are a few other names that jumped out at me. I'll try to go beyond the obvious low K guys (e.g. Joe Saunders, Aaron Cook, Jair Jurrjens)
7. Chris Carpenter (36)
8. David Price (35)
17. Brandon Webb (27)
Pass on Carpenter and take Hanson, Gallardo, Kershaw, Hamels, Nolasco or Wandy. Plenty of upside in that group without the same season-ending injury risk. Plus, Carpenter is not an elite strikeout pitcher, even when he's healthy and in top form. For most of us with IP caps, the price is too rich for my blood.
4. Phil Hughes (-56)
Projected to be a top 30 pitcher, and that's with < 120 IP. He projects similarly to Jon Lester on a per IP basis, sans ground ball rates.
8.5 K/9 -- 3.2 BB/9
8.3 K/9 -- 3.0 BB/9
All in all a fun exercise. Can't wait!
Side note -- I should have the GJ 2010 set figured out this weekend. More to come!