Thursday, March 26, 2009

A Post of His Own: Terry Tiffee

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By popular demand:


Terry Tiffee, Philadelphia Phillies
by Will Mattis

A few years ago, Terry Tiffee was the lowest ranked hitter in all of Yahoo Sports Fantasy Baseball.

Truth be told, he's actually had a pretty good minor league career. Check that -- a really good minor league career. Terry has hit over .300 in four of his nine minor league seasons. And last year at AAA, Tiffee hit .378 in 392 at bats. Eat your heart out, Chipper Jones.

Speaking of Fantasy Baseball rankings, I'll be posting my season preview on Saturday afternoon, concurrent with my keeper league draft.

My two favorite fantasy baseball predictions of all time:

- In 2007, if you sorted by SLG% in ESPN's predicted stats, none other than John Mabry was at the top. You just wonder how they came to that conclusion.

- In 2006, Baseball Prospectus assigned every pitcher a "breakout rate" and "collapse rate."

They classified a "breakout" as a 20% improvement in periperhal ERA (dubbed pERA). They classified a "collapse" as a 25% regression in pERA.

Anyway, Zack Greinke was forecasted to have a 0% collapse rate, with a baseline pERA of 3.83. They proceeded to then write, "We have seen the future of pitching, and his name is Zack Greinke."

Well of course, nobody should ever be that cocky. Greinke's real ERA went from 3.97 to 5.80 that year. His BB/9 rate was up (2.6 to 4.3) as was his HR/9 rate (1.1 to 1.4). So it's safe to say his pERA got destroyed -- something you'd definitely call a "collapse."

Never saw any mention of it in the 2007 season preview.

Thanks for the sweet card, Will!

1 comment:

  1. Wow, that was quick! Thanks Dave and Will for making this card available. Terry is a friend of mine from my community college years and one reason I quit playing when I did. As a friend and fan of him, I just wish that he would get more of a shot in the Majors. He was hoping to latch on in Japan this year. Instead, it looks like another season of AAA and hopefully a call up.

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