Analyzing Fantasy Baseball Heuristics - Part One

Jorge De La Rosa

2011 Goose Joak Original

Tonight, on the eve of my first draft, I look at the last three years worth of fantasy baseball rankings and draw some conclusions.


Heuristic #1: Don't spend a lot on pitching, because pitching is fluky
My Finding: Well...it may surprise you.  Over the last two years, elite hitters do not seem less risk averse than elite pitchers.

Consider:

1a. Elite pitchers did not slip up.  And, get this -- they held their ground equally or better than top ten hitters.

• Based on Yahoo's preseason rankings, half of the top ten preseason pitchers in 2010 are still top ten preseason pitchers in 2011
• Other than Wainwright and Santana -- who are injured -- the lowest any of them dropped to in the 2011 preseason rankings was 20th 
• MLB.com is the exact same.  Half of the top ten preseason pitchers in 2010 are still in the top ten preseason pitchers for 2011.
• Only 4 of the top 10 preseason hitters in 2010 are still in the top ten preseason hitters for 2010!
• Based on Yahoo's preseason rankings, half of the top ten preseason pitchers in 2009 were still top ten preseason pitchers in 2010.
• Other than Brandon Webb -- who was injured -- the lowest any of them dropped to in the 2010 preseason rankings was 24th
• MLB.com is the exact same.  Half of the top ten preseason pitchers in 2009 were still in the top ten preseason pitchers for 2010
• The exact same is true of hitters!

1b. While new pitchers emerge, guys do not become elite overnight

• Of the top ten pitchers going into 2011, the lowest rated going into 2010 was Cliff Lee -- no slouch at #20
• Of the top ten pitchers going into 2010, the lowest rated going into 2009 was Justin Verlander -- more unexpected, but not a slouch at #34
• The highest rated pitchers of 2011, who were not ranked in the top 72 of 2010 (roughly the active list of SP in any league) were:
• Brandon Morrow (NR to 29)
• Dan Hudson (NR to 31)
• Phil Hughes (NR to 36)
• Madison Bumgarner (NR to 38)
• The highest ranked pitchers of 2010, who were not ranked in the top 72 of 2009 (roughly the active list of SP in any league) were:
• Brett Anderson (NR to 32)
• Clay Buchholz (NR to 38)
• Tim Hudson (NR to 40)
• Kevin Slowey (NR to 41)

My Conclusion: Big bats are still important.  But don't be afraid of quality arms.  And don't expect an ace to appear out of rubbish.